Space Environment Modelling with the Use of Artificial Intelligence Methods

Details Space Environment Modelling with the Use of Artificial Intelligence Methods Space Environment Modelling with the Use of Artificial Intelligence Methods

Dec 1996

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1996esasp.392..269l&link_type=abstract

Environment Modelling for Space-based Applications, Symposium Proceedings (ESA SP-392). ESTEC Noordwijk, 18-20 September 1996. E

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Space based technological systems are affected by the space weather in many ways. Several severe failures of satellites have been reported at times of space storms. Our society also increasingly depends on satellites for communication, navigation, exploration, and research. Predictions of the conditions in the satellite environment have therefore become very important. We will here present predictions made with the use of artificial intelligence (AI) techniques, such as artificial neural networks (ANN) and hybrids of AT methods. We are developing a space weather model based on intelligence hybrid systems (IHS). The model consists of different forecast modules, each module predicts the space weather on a specific time-scale. The time-scales range from minutes to months with the fundamental time-scale of 1-5 minutes, 1-3 hours, 1-3 days, and 27 days. Solar and solar wind data are used as input data. From solar magnetic field measurements, either made on the ground at Wilcox Solar Observatory (WSO) at Stanford, or made from space by the satellite SOHO, solar wind parameters can be predicted and modelled with ANN and MHD models. Magnetograms from WSO are available on a daily basis. However, from SOHO magnetograms will be available every 90 minutes. SOHO magnetograms as input to ANNs will therefore make it possible to even predict solar transient events. Geomagnetic storm activity can today be predicted with very high accuracy by means of ANN methods using solar wind input data. However, at present real-time solar wind data are only available during part of the day from the satellite WIND. With the launch of ACE in 1997, solar wind data will on the other hand be available during 24 hours per day. The conditions of the satellite environment are not only disturbed at times of geomagnetic storms but also at times of intense solar radiation and highly energetic particles. These events are associated with increased solar activity. Predictions of these events are therefore also handled with the modules in the Lund Space Weather Model. Interesting Links: Lund Space Weather and AI Center

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