Mathematics – Probability
Scientific paper
Jan 2011
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2011icar..211..511z&link_type=abstract
Icarus, Volume 211, Issue 1, p. 511-518.
Mathematics
Probability
1
Scientific paper
Near-Earth asteroid (99942) Apophis currently resides among the top positions on the list of objects with small, yet non-zero impact probability with the Earth. For that reason an unusual observational and theoretical effort has been dedicated to precisely characterize its future orbit. Here we discuss orbital perturbation of Apophis due to incident and reflected solar radiation pressure (SRP). We both revisit recent analytical estimate of the SRP effects for this body and also formulate a numerical approach allowing us to compute the SRP orbital perturbation under general assumptions. Contrary to some previous results, we show that SRP has a much smaller effect on the Apophis trajectory than does the thermal re-radiation force which produces the Yarkovsky effect. When the Yarkovsky effect becomes constrained enough in the future, our approach may be used to improve the orbit determination for this asteroid.
Vokrouhlicky David
Zizka Jan
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