Solar Flares: Avalanche Models and Data Assimilation

Statistics – Computation

Scientific paper

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Scientific paper

Solar flares play an important part in space meteorology because they can eject charged particles that are the source of the geomagnetic storms on Earth. These storms can interfere with communication satellites and overload electric transformers. We need first to understand the physical mechanisms at the origin of flares and to be able to predict them sufficiently in advance. Several models to explain the mechanism of solar flares were suggested. We have investigated the self-organized criticality (or avalanche) model where an instability related to the reconnection of the magnetic field lines is propagated. The techniques of data assimilation were applied to a 2-D avalanche model. Data assimilation generates better forecasts by taking advantage of both the theoretical/numerical models and the observations. With the increase in computational power and the numerous satellites (SOHO, TRACE) observing the Sun with an improved spatial and temporal resolution, these methods will surely give us a better understanding of solar flares.

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