Mathematics – Probability
Scientific paper
Aug 1983
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1983jrasc..77..203s&link_type=abstract
Journal of the Royal Astronomical Society of Canada (ISSN 0035-872X), vol. 77, Aug. 1983, p. 203-213.
Mathematics
Probability
Forecasting, Solar Flares, Sudden Ionospheric Disturbances, Poisson Density Functions, Regression Analysis, Sunspots
Scientific paper
The application of multiple regression techniques to the prediction of sudden-ionospheric-disturbance-producing solar flares (SIDF) is discussed and demonstrated. The statistical principles involved are reviewed, and the criteria employed to derive input parameters from Sacramento-Peak-Observatory photographs are presented. In an empirical, postevent study of the first four months of 1980, major-SIDF frequency (F) was related to the probability (C) that a sunspot group would be magnetically complex (class gamma or beta-gamma) and the area of the spot (A) in millionths of a solar hemisphere by the expressions C = 0.000345A + 0.03 and F = 1.37 C + 0.15. In sample predictions of SIDF during the passage of the McMath 16747 active region in April, 1980, only 'semi-competent' accuracy was achieved, and the flare behavior was found to exhibit Poisson statistics regardless of the magnetic class of the spots. The need for a better understanding of (observable) flare-triggering mechanisms is stressed.
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