Solar flare prediction: A worthy goal, or a foolish pursuit? (Invited)

Details Solar flare prediction: A worthy goal, or a foolish pursuit? (Invited) Solar flare prediction: A worthy goal, or a foolish pursuit? (Invited)

Dec 2010

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2010agufmsh54d..02m&link_type=abstract

American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2010, abstract #SH54D-02

Astronomy and Astrophysics

Astrophysics

[3245] Mathematical Geophysics / Probabilistic Forecasting, [7519] Solar Physics, Astrophysics, And Astronomy / Flares, [7524] Solar Physics, Astrophysics, And Astronomy / Magnetic Fields

Scientific paper

The solar physics community has made a number of progressive breakthroughs in the field of solar flare prediction within the last few years. Although we still do not have a means of predicting the size, timing, and geo-effectiveness of any individual event, we can now predict two ends of the spectrum - the 'all-clear' and the 'big storm'. I will highlight these recent advances, and discuss the major problems associated with this aspect of solar physics. By identifying common features and problems across a number of solar flare prediction techniques, I will propose how this field can advance and show how our lessons learned can be applied to other aspects of solar physics (e.g., nanoflare occurrence, short timescale precursors)

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