Solar Activity Variations for the Last Millennia.Will the Next Long-Period Solar Minimum be Formed?

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Sun, Solar Activity, Schove'S Series

Scientific paper

The series of macrocharacteristics of the 11-year Schwabe-Wolf cycles (the so-called Schowe series) has been used to specify notions of the character of long-term variations in solar activity. A mathematical statistic analysis of data in the series has been performed using two independent methods. Statistically significant cyclic oscillations with periods of about 100, 122, 205, 350, and 1200 years have been revealed. About 200-year cycle, which was unnoticeable in the relatively short 250-year series of the most reliable instrumental data (since it was reduced by other long-period oscillations), proved to be the most powerful among these oscillations. An analysis of obtained results has indicated that it is highly probable that the next long-period minimum of solar activity, which will possibly be not so deep as the Maunder and Sperer minimums, will be formed in the 21st century

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