Simulation of the Impact of a Sudden Stratospheric Warming on the Upper Atmosphere Using a Whole Atmosphere Model

Mathematics – Logic

Scientific paper

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2427 Ionosphere/Atmosphere Interactions (0335), 3334 Middle Atmosphere Dynamics (0341, 0342), 3367 Theoretical Modeling, 3369 Thermospheric Dynamics (0358), 3389 Tides And Planetary Waves

Scientific paper

It is now abundantly clear that upper atmosphere space weather, in both neutral and plasma density, is forced by the Sun, the lower atmosphere, and a range of internal processes. EUV and plasma forcing from the Sun has been the focus historically, and is still a major challenge. In contrast, characterizing the influence from the lower atmosphere drivers is a more recent focus. The lower atmosphere is a source of gravity waves, planetary waves, and tides for the upper atmosphere. During a sudden stratospheric warming (SWW) event the planetary wave numbers one and two grow in the middle atmosphere changing the propagation of waves that influence the dynamics and temperature structure in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere. To characterize and understand the impact of lower atmosphere dynamics on the upper atmosphere a new Whole Atmosphere Model (WAM) has been developed as part of a collaborative project Integrated Dynamics through Earth's Atmosphere (IDEA) between the National Weather Service's (NWS) Space Weather Prediction and Environmental Modeling Centers, and the University of Colorado. WAM is a 150-layer general circulation model based on the NWS operational weather prediction Global Forecast System (GFS) model, which is coupled self- consistently with a Global Ionosphere Plasmasphere (GIP) physics model. An annual run of the WAM model has been performed after initialization, the output of which represents "climatological weather". Since IDEA includes all the layers of the atmosphere, the annual run of the model generates SSW naturally and realistically, without the need for changes in external forcing or boundary conditions. The model shows the classic signatures of a SWW with warming in the winter stratosphere and cooling in the winter mesosphere. In the lower thermosphere, high latitude warming occurs in agreement with recent observations from ground- based radar and from the TIMED satellite. The dynamics in the lower thermosphere is also altered inducing a change in low latitude dynamo electric fields. A SSW is just one example of how lower atmosphere sources introduce variability in the upper atmosphere, and can be used to illustrate the various coupling processes.

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