Simulating a seismic series using geostatistical and stochastic methods: application to the seismic series in the Alborán Sea (1997 June 24-?)

Details Simulating a seismic series using geostatistical and stochastic methods: application to the seismic series in the Alborán Sea (1997 June 24-?) Simulating a seismic series using geostatistical and stochastic methods: application to the seismic series in the Alborán Sea (1997 June 24-?)

Dec 1999

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1999geoji.139..726t&link_type=abstract

Geophysical Journal International, Volume 139, Issue 3, pp. 726-742.

Astronomy and Astrophysics

Astronomy

Alborán Sea, Conditional Geostatistical Simulation, Likelihood, Seismic Sequence, Seismic Simulation

Scientific paper

Seismic series can be taken as examples of correlated unstationary sets of time-stochastic sequences. We investigate the possibility of estimating what is most probable to occur subsequently, if we know the events that have occurred up to a given moment. The stochastic methods can be used with data of the seismic series, irrespective of their genesis and origin. Using three stochastic methods, namely (1) simulating the likelihood of occurrence by conditional geostatistical simulation; (2) developing a stochastic analysis of the energy release by means of energy packages; and (3) calculating the occurrence time of the most probable next earthquake, we were able to simulate the occurrence of earthquakes that took place during the Alborán Sea seismic series (1997-1998). We conclude that it is possible to set limits on the time of occurrence and energy release, understood as the magnitude of the most probable earthquake, during the development of a seismic sequence and prior to the actual occurrence of the earthquake.

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