Short-term solar activity forecasting

Details Short-term solar activity forecasting Short-term solar activity forecasting

Aug 1979

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1979stp.....1..176x&link_type=abstract

In NOAA Solar-Terrest. Predictions Proc., Vol. 1 p 176-181 (SEE N80-18462 09-42)

Mathematics

Probability

Forecasting, Ionospheric Disturbances, Solar Activity, Solar Observatories, Statistical Analysis, Magnetic Disturbances, Microwaves, Sunspots, X Rays

Scientific paper

A method of forecasting the level of activity of every active region on the surface of the Sun within one to three days is proposed in order to estimate the possibility of the occurrence of ionospheric disturbances and proton events. The forecasting method is a probability process based on statistics. In many of the cases, the accuracy in predicting the short term solar activity was in the range of 70%, although there were many false alarms.

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