Short-term prediction and a new method of classification of PC 1 pulsation occurrences

Details Short-term prediction and a new method of classification of PC 1 pulsation occurrences Short-term prediction and a new method of classification of PC 1 pulsation occurrences

Jul 1980

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1980p%26ss...28..739f&link_type=abstract

Planetary and Space Science, vol. 28, July 1980, p. 739-747.

Computer Science

Performance

Geomagnetic Micropulsations, Magnetic Storms, Performance Prediction, Ionospheric Disturbances, Ionospheric Propagation, Long Term Effects, Magnetoactivity

Scientific paper

Because of their known tendency to occur in the interval 2-7 days after the start of a geomagnetic storm, Pc 1 pulsations (0.2-5 Hz) are particularly well suited for a method of occurrence prediction based on the comparison of running means of a geomagnetic activity index. By comparing the running mean of a short interval (approximately 2 days) of activity data with the mean of a longer interval (approximately 5 days), it is possible to isolate the intervals fo declining activity that contain a large proportion (approximately 66%) of Pc 1 pulsation occurrences. Assuming the real time availability of a daily activity index, predictions can be made for 3-10 days ahead of the probability of Pc 1 occurrences. The method of prediction generalizes the previous observations on the relation between Pc 1 pulsations and geomagnetic storms, and one of its important features is its ability to divide Pc 1 pulsation occurrences into a unified system of categories. It is probable that this system can be exploited to provide new information about the pulsations.

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