SEP Events at Distances <1 AU: Particle Intensities Above Threshold Values

Details SEP Events at Distances <1 AU: Particle Intensities Above Threshold Values SEP Events at Distances <1 AU: Particle Intensities Above Threshold Values

Dec 2011

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2011agufmsh44b..05d&link_type=abstract

American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2011, abstract #SH44B-05

Astronomy and Astrophysics

Astrophysics

[2114] Interplanetary Physics / Energetic Particles, [7513] Solar Physics, Astrophysics, And Astronomy / Coronal Mass Ejections, [7514] Solar Physics, Astrophysics, And Astronomy / Energetic Particles, [7984] Space Weather / Space Radiation Environment

Scientific paper

A critical issue regarding future missions going close to the Sun is the prediction of periods with solar energetic particle (SEP) intensities above certain thresholds that may affect instrument performance and/or spacecraft guidance. We present a series of methods that allow us to estimate the probability of having periods of SEP intensities j exceeding a pre-defined critical value jc (i.e., j≥ jc) as a function of the heliocentric distance. We use intensities measured at 1 AU during two solar cycles as representative of the particle intensities that may occur during the lifetime of such missions. We simulate the SEP environment that these missions might experience by varying the measured 1-AU intensities along the trajectory of the spacecraft. The methods proposed cover from a simple radial extrapolation of the intensities measured at 1 AU to more sophisticated methods that consider both the relative motion of the Earth with respect to the traveling spacecraft and simulations of the SEP intensity-time profiles as a function of the heliocentric distance. The results are expressed in terms of probability distributions for the occurrence rates and for the time durations of SEP events with intensities j≥ jc. We apply these methods to a spacecraft traveling in the ecliptic plane for 2543 days approaching the Sun as close as 9.5 solar radii.

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