Sensitivity of the asymptotic behaviour of meta distributions

Details Sensitivity of the asymptotic behaviour of meta distributions Sensitivity of the asymptotic behaviour of meta distributions

2009-12-29

arxiv.org/abs/0912.5337v1

Mathematics

Probability

Scientific paper

The paper focuses on a class of light-tailed multivariate probability distributions. These are obtained via a transformation of the marginals from a heavy-tailed original distribution. This class was introduced in Balkema et al. (2009). As shown there, for the light-tailed meta distribution the sample clouds, properly scaled, converge onto a deterministic set. The shape of the limit set gives a good description of the relation between extreme observations in different directions. This paper investigates how sensitive the limit shape is to changes in the underlying heavy-tailed distribution. Copulas fit in well with multivariate extremes. By Galambos's Theorem existence of directional derivatives in the upper endpoint of the copula is necessary and sufficient for convergence of the multivariate extremes provided the marginal maxima converge. The copula of the max-stable limit distribution does not depend on the marginals. So marginals seem to play a subsidiary role in multivariate extremes. The theory and examples presented in this paper cast a different light on the significance of marginals. For light-tailed meta distributions the asymptotic behaviour is very sensitive to perturbations of the underlying heavy-tailed original distribution, it may change drastically even when the asymptotic behaviour of the heavy-tailed density is not affected.

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