Seismic quiescence at Parkfield: an independent indication of an imminent earthquake

Details Seismic quiescence at Parkfield: an independent indication of an imminent earthquake Seismic quiescence at Parkfield: an independent indication of an imminent earthquake

May 1990

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1990natur.345..426w&link_type=abstract

Nature, Volume 345, Issue 6274, pp. 426-428 (1990).

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Scientific paper

THE Parkfield segment of the San Andreas fault midway between San Francisco and Los Angeles has experienced six moderate-sized earthquakes since 1850, with an average recurrence time of about 22 years. Based on this regular behaviour, and the occurrence of the most recent earthquake in 1966, a shock of local magnitude ML=5.7 is expected to occur by 19931,2. Here we suggest that a current lack of small earthquakes on this segment could be a precursory anomaly to the next characteristic Parkfield earthquake. Only four earthquakes of M>=2.5 have occurred on the segment since January 1986, whereas twenty would have been expected, extrapolating from the mean background rate. Comparison with other cases of precursory quiescence suggests that the M = 5.7 earthquake should occur in the next two years, rupturing the same 35-km fault segment that ruptured in 19663.

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