Sea-level trends and physical consequences: applications to the U.S. shore

Details Sea-level trends and physical consequences: applications to the U.S. shore Sea-level trends and physical consequences: applications to the U.S. shore

Nov 1992

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1992esrv...33...73f&link_type=abstract

Earth Science Reviews, Volume 33, Issue 2, p. 73-109.

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Scientific paper

As our knowledge of the potential for future global warming increases, our understanding of the imminent dangers associated with continued, possibly accelerated, sea-level rise increases. Several independent research groups have predicted future sea-level rise on the order of 15 to 50 cm by the middle of next century, and between 30 and 110 cm by 2100. Considering the concentration of coastal populations, and dollar value of industries and developments, these increases in mean sea level pose significant hazards. A linkage exists between sea-level history and climate history, but research has demonstrated that sea level is controlled by a complex interaction of geologic, hydrologic and climatologic factors. Because of insufficient data describing global-scale hydrological phenomena, we lack understanding of the components of sea-level change. Present estimates of the various contributions to trends in sea level do not agree with physical measurements of sea-level history. This hampers our ability to make accurate predictions of sea-level behavior. Sea-level rise implies the future threat of accelerated coastal erosion, increased frequency and severity of structural damage resulting from storms which make landfall, salinization of groundwater resources and estuarine and other aquatic ecosystems, destruction of coastal wetlands leading to severe impacts on coastal marine biologic communities, and significant damage to the infrastructure of coastal cities and other population centers. Federally sponsored study groups have completed a series of specific recommendations dealing with the threat of sea-level rise and appropriate responses by parties concerned with the coastal zone. These describe a policy of planned retreat from the coast on a schedule dictated by natural events and processes. The Federal Emergency Management Agency would delineate coastal hazard zones and provide appropriate planning policies governing future development. Compliance with hazard zone standards would determine landowner participation in the National Flood Insurance Program. Federal, state, local and private interests in coastal lands should respond to the threat of sea-level rise and coastal erosion with innovative land management policies and practices that encourage the establishment of coastal high-risk zones and conversion of these lands to low-risk usage.

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