Mathematics – Probability
Scientific paper
Jan 1997
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1997blgj...23...69k&link_type=abstract
Bulgarian Geophysical Journal, vol. 23, p. 69
Mathematics
Probability
2
Solar Physics, Solar Activity, Solar Cycles, Variations, Time Series Analysis, Probability Theory, Carbon 14
Scientific paper
On the basis of indirect data for 3rd - 20th centuries - obtained over the basis of evaluations on the nine degree power scale of 11-year Schove's series cycles, time variations of solar activity has been investigated for the above mentioned period of time, As a result 104 and 204-year cycles of duration, as well as traces of cyclic variations of 77, 88, 130 and 350 periodic of years have been established. A comparison with the data of radiocarbon contents in ligneous sample has been made, and it is evident that the main distinguishing feature, between Schove's series and C14 temporary time series, is the absence of trend and cycles of duration of over 500 years in the data of the first sample and their presence in the second one.The validity of the relationship W2 > W1, has been checked, where W1 and W2 are respectively near maximum Wolf's number values for the even and the odd cycles following them, concerning the investigated period of time, i.e. 1700 years. On the grounds of the aforesaid the probability for the breach of order in that inequality i.e. the even cycles to be higher than the odd cycles following them, increases at high even cycles. The breach of order is a practically inevitable event at the highest even cycles for which near maximum average annual Wolf's number values exceed 125 . On the basis of these results an assumption has been made that the forthcoming 23rd solar cycle will be weaker in power than cycle No 22.
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