Risk perception in epidemic modeling

Details Risk perception in epidemic modeling Risk perception in epidemic modeling

2007-05-14

arxiv.org/abs/0705.1974v3

Phys. Rev. E 76, 061904 (2007)

Biology

Quantitative Biology

Populations and Evolution

6 pages, 6 figures, completely new version

Scientific paper

10.1103/PhysRevE.76.061904

We investigate the effects of risk perception in a simple model of epidemic spreading. We assume that the perception of the risk of being infected depends on the fraction of neighbors that are ill. The effect of this factor is to decrease the infectivity, that therefore becomes a dynamical component of the model. We study the problem in the mean-field approximation and by numerical simulations for regular, random and scale-free networks. We show that for homogeneous and random networks, there is always a value of perception that stops the epidemics. In the ``worst-case'' scenario of a scale-free network with diverging input connectivity, a linear perception cannot stop the epidemics; however we show that a non-linear increase of the perception risk may lead to the extinction of the disease. This transition is discontinuous, and is not predicted by the mean-field analysis.

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