Statistics – Applications
Scientific paper
Jan 2002
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2002aipc..608.1181k&link_type=abstract
SPACE TECHNOLOGY AND APPLICATIONS INTERNATIONAL FORUM- STAIF 2002. Conference on Thermophyiscs in Microgravity; Conference on In
Statistics
Applications
Spaceborne And Space Research Instruments, Apparatus, And Components
Scientific paper
Many people refuse to address many of the realities of reusable launch vehicle systems, technologies, operations and economics. Basic principles of physics, space flight operations, and business limitations are applied to the creation of a practical vision of future expectations. While reusable launcher concepts have been proposed for several decades, serious review of potential designs began in the mid-1990s, when NASA decided that a Space Shuttle replacement had to be pursued. A great deal of excitement and interest was quickly generated by the prospect of ``orders-of-magnitude'' reduction in launch costs. The potential for a vastly expanded space program motivated the entire space community. By the late-1990s, and after over one billion dollars were spent on the technology development and privately-funded concepts, it had become clear that there would be no new, near-term operational reusable vehicle. Many factors contributed to a very expensive and disappointing effort to create a new generation of launch vehicles. It began with overly optimistic projections of technology advancements and the belief that a greatly increased demand for satellite launches would be realized early in the 21st century. Contractors contributed to the perception of quickly reachable technology and business goals, thus, accelerating the enthusiasm and helping to create a ``gold rush'' euphoria. Cost, schedule and performance margins were all highly optimistic. Several entrepreneurs launched start up companies to take advantage of the excitement and the availability of investor capital. Millions were raised from private investors and venture capitalists, based on little more than flashy presentations and animations. Well over $500 million were raised by little-known start up groups to create reusable systems, which might complete for the coming market in launch services. By 1999, it was clear that market projections, made just two years earlier, were not going to be realized. Investors stopped funding the many private projects, and NASA grew weary of the lack of progress in its funded programs. The elements leading to the demise of NASA's X-33 and other programs are addressed, and lessons for the future offered. .
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