Responses of energy use to climate change: A climate modeling study

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Biogeosciences: Carbon Cycling (4806), Atmospheric Processes: Global Climate Models (1626, 4928), Policy Sciences: Demand Estimation, Policy Sciences: System Operation And Management, Public Issues: Science Policy (0485)

Scientific paper

Using a general-circulation climate model to drive an energy-use model, we projected changes in USA energy-use and in corresponding fossil-fuel CO2 emissions through year 2025 for a low (1.2°C) and a high (3.4°C) temperature response to CO2 doubling. The low-ΔT scenario had a cumulative (2003-2025) energy increase of 1.09 quadrillion Btu (quads) for cooling/heating demand. Northeastern states had net energy reductions for cooling/heating over the entire period, but in most other regions energy increases for cooling outweighed energy decreases for heating. The high-ΔT scenario had significantly increased warming, especially in winter, so decreased heating needs led to a cumulative (2003-2025) heating/cooling energy decrease of 0.82 quads. In both scenarios, CO2 emissions increases from electricity generation outweighed CO2 emissions decreases from reduced heating needs. The results reveal the intricate energy-economy structure that must be considered in projecting consequences of climate warming for energy, economics, and fossil-fuel carbon emissions.

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