Computer Science – Performance
Scientific paper
Dec 2008
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2008agufm.u24a..08p&link_type=abstract
American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2008, abstract #U24A-08
Computer Science
Performance
6300 Policy Sciences (7964), 7200 Seismology
Scientific paper
The ShakeOut Scenario of a magnitude 7.8 earthquake on the southern San Andreas Fault was developed to fit needs of end users, particularly emergency managers at Federal, State, and local levels. Customization has continued after initial publication. The Scenario, a collaboration among some 300 experts in physical and social sciences, engineering, and industry, was released in May, 2008, to a key planning conference for the November 2008 Golden Guardian Exercise series. According to long-standing observers, the 2008 exercise is the most ambitious of their experience. The scientific foundation has attracted a large number of participants and there are already requests to continue use of the Scenario in 2009. Successful exercises cover a limited range of capabilities, in order to test performance in measurable ways, and to train staff without overwhelming them. Any one exercise would fail if it attempted to capture the complexity of impacts from a major earthquake. Instead, exercise planners have used the Scenario like a magnifying glass to identify risk and capabilities most critical to their own jurisdictions. Presentations by Scenario scientists and a 16-page narrative provided an initial overview. However, many planners were daunted in attempts to extract details from a 300-page report, 12 supplemental studies, and 10 appendices, or in attempts to cast the reality into straightforward events to drive successful exercises. Thus we developed an evolving collection of documents, presentations, and consultations that included impacts to specific jurisdictions; distillations of damages and consequences; and annotated lists of capabilities and situations to consider. Some exercise planners needed realistic extrapolations beyond posited damages; others sought reality checks; yet others needed new formats or perspectives. Through all this, it was essential to maintain flexibility, assisting planners to adjust findings where appropriate, while indicating why some results could not be changed. The results of these efforts have been exercises that use a richer set of scientific findings; planners and participants with a broader understanding of the regional impacts of a major earthquake; and for future scenarists, increased insight into emergency management application of hazard science results, and into the value of ongoing engagement with stakeholders.
Holbrook C. C.
Perry S. C.
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