Reconciling Covariances with Reliable Orbital Uncertainty

Details Reconciling Covariances with Reliable Orbital Uncertainty Reconciling Covariances with Reliable Orbital Uncertainty

Sep 2011

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2011amos.confe..34f&link_type=abstract

Proceedings of the Advanced Maui Optical and Space Surveillance Technologies Conference, held in Wailea, Maui, Hawaii, September

Mathematics

Scientific paper

There is a common suspicion that formal covariances do not represent a realistic measure of orbital uncertainties. By devising metrics for measuring the representations of orbit error, we assess under what circumstances such lore is justified as well as the root cause of the discrepancy between the mathematics of orbital uncertainty and its practical implementation. We offer a scheme by which formal covariances may be adapted to be an accurate measure of orbital uncertainties and show how that adaptation performs against both simulated and real space-object data. We also apply these covariance adaptation methods to the process of observation association using many simulated and real data test cases. We demonstrate that covariance-informed observation association can be reliable, even in the case when only two tracks are available. Satellite breakup and collision event catalog maintenance could benefit from the automation made possible with these association methods.

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