Realt-time Prediction of Magnetospheric Activity using the Boyle Index

Details Realt-time Prediction of Magnetospheric Activity using the Boyle Index Realt-time Prediction of Magnetospheric Activity using the Boyle Index

Dec 2006

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2006agufmsm22a..04r&link_type=abstract

American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2006, abstract #SM22A-04

Statistics

2722 Forecasting (7924, 7964), 2736 Magnetosphere/Ionosphere Interactions (2431), 2740 Magnetospheric Configuration And Dynamics, 2784 Solar Wind/Magnetosphere Interactions, 2788 Magnetic Storms And Substorms (7954)

Scientific paper

The Boyle Index has been now used in real time for over 6 years to predict geomagnetic activity. Statistics of its ability to make short-term accurate predictions are now available with underscore the success of its simple form. The logarithm of the 3-hour average Boyle Index correlates well with Kp. Furthermore, if the Boyle Index exceeds 200 kV, the likelihood of a KP 6 or greater storm exceeds 95%. For 2003 and 2004, all Kp > 8 storms occurred with a 3-hour Boyle index greater than 110 . And for a 3- hour Boyle index greater than 200, it has essentially NO false alarms (in 2004, for BI > 200, the following 3- hour Kp had only one Kp as low as 6+ and the rest above that; in 2003, one 6, one 6+ and the rest above that). Thus although the Boyle index generally overestimates the polar cap potential for severe events, it does successfully predict that severe activity will occur. In addition, having the Boyle index less than 100 is a very good indicator that the magnetosphere will be quiet. Only a handful of Kp>6 events occurred with the 3-hour Boyle Index under 100 over the course of the two years analyzed. There do exist some storm events (Kp > 6) with a relatively low Boyle Index; in most of these cases, a preconditioning event occurred in the previous 24 hours. We are examining neural networks as a way to train the forecast for these preconditioning events. To receive email notification whenever the Boyle index exceeds 200 kV, send an email to spacalrt- subscribe@mailman.rice.edu.

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