Real-time forecasting following a damaging earthquake

Details Real-time forecasting following a damaging earthquake Real-time forecasting following a damaging earthquake

Nov 2009

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2009georl..3621302m&link_type=abstract

Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 36, Issue 21, CiteID L21302

Statistics

Computation

5

Seismology: Earthquake Interaction, Forecasting, And Prediction (1217, 1242), Mathematical Geophysics: Probabilistic Forecasting (3238), Mathematical Geophysics: Stochastic Processes (3235, 4468, 4475, 7857), Mathematical Geophysics: Persistence, Memory, Correlations, Clustering (3265, 7857), Computational Geophysics: Model Verification And Validation

Scientific paper

We describe the results of a prospective, real-time earthquake forecast experiment made during a seismic emergency. A Mw 6.3 earthquake struck the city of L'Aquila, Italy on April 6, 2009, causing hundreds of deaths and vast damage. Immediately following this event, we began producing daily earthquake forecasts for the region, and we provided these forecasts to Civil Protection - the agency responsible for managing the emergency. The forecasts are based on a stochastic model that combines the Gutenberg-Richter distribution of earthquake magnitudes and power-law decay in space and time of triggered earthquakes. The results from the first month following the L'Aquila earthquake exhibit a good fit between forecasts and observations, indicating that accurate earthquake forecasting is now a realistic goal. Our experience with this experiment demonstrates an urgent need for a connection between probabilistic forecasts and decision-making in order to establish - before crises - quantitative and transparent protocols for decision support.

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