Mathematics – Probability
Scientific paper
Sep 2009
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2009dps....41.2903g&link_type=abstract
American Astronomical Society, DPS meeting #41, #29.03
Mathematics
Probability
Scientific paper
Since 1968, radar measurements of distance (to tens of meters) and velocity (to millimeters per second) have been reported for 228+ of the 365+ detected asteroids and comets. 86% of the cases have been within the last 15 years. To characterize the effectiveness of observing PHAs with radar, a debiased population was used to assess detectability, trajectory prediction, and physical characterization capabilities of the existing Goldstone and Arecibo sites and potential upgrades. It was found existing planetary radar installations can detect 69-98% of the potential impactors (70 <= d <= 700 m) more than a year before impact, once optically discovered. Radar astrometry increases average Earth encounter predictability from 80 to 400 years, increases impact warning an average of up to 4 years, and can potentially image 22% of the d > 140 m population at few-meter levels (comparable to a spacecraft mission), identifying targets of interest for future missions. Such physical characterization is a prerequisite for accurate heliocentric trajectory prediction and thus meaningful calculation of impact probability for those km-size and smaller NEAs having a close planetary encounter prior to a potential impact in subsequent years.
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