Quantitative Forecasting of Major Solar Flares

Details Quantitative Forecasting of Major Solar Flares Quantitative Forecasting of Major Solar Flares

May 2007

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2007apj...661l.109g&link_type=abstract

The Astrophysical Journal, Volume 661, Issue 1, pp. L109-L112.

Astronomy and Astrophysics

Astronomy

40

Sun: Coronal Mass Ejections (Cmes), Sun: Flares, Sun: Magnetic Fields, Sun: Photosphere

Scientific paper

We define the effective connected magnetic field, Beff, a single metric of the flaring potential in solar active regions. We calculated Beff for 298 active regions (93 X- and M-flaring, 205 nonflaring) as recorded by SOHO/MDI during a 10 yr period covering much of solar cycle 23. We find that Beff is a robust criterion for distinguishing flaring from nonflaring regions. A well-defined 12 hr conditional probability for major flares depends solely on Beff. This probability exceeds 0.95 for M-class and X-class flares if Beff>1600 G and Beff>2100 G, respectively, while the maximum calculated Beff-values are near 4000 G. Active regions do not give M-class and X-class flares if Beff<200 G and Beff<750 G, respectively. We conclude that Beff is an efficient flare-forecasting criterion that can be computed on a timely basis from readily available data.

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