Mathematics – Logic
Scientific paper
Jan 2011
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2011aas...21715602s&link_type=abstract
American Astronomical Society, AAS Meeting #217, #156.02; Bulletin of the American Astronomical Society, Vol. 43, 2011
Mathematics
Logic
Scientific paper
Understanding changes in the solar flux over geologic timescales is essential to studies of planetary atmospheres and how planets evolve in general. To this end, we have developed quantitative estimates of the wavelength-dependent solar flux over time. Using multi-wavelength data from the Sun and solar analogs we present a parametrization of the solar flux which is nominally valid from 2-20000 nm, and from 0.02 through 7.1 Gyr.
The parameterization is subject to large uncertainties inherent in primary measurement error, the unknown ages of the solar proxies, and the intrinsic variability of the solar analogs. This poster details our procedures in quantifying the effect of these uncertainties on our estimates of the evolving solar flux. From the X-ray to the near UV, we derived thousands of different power law fits to the observational data via a Monte Carlo simulation. During each iteration of the simulation, an age for each solar analog was selected randomly from age ranges found in the literature. These ages are fit against the observational data, which are themselves randomized by their measurement errors and assumed intrinsic variability. This produces multiple power laws fits for flux versus time in various wavelength regimes and strong lines, which we compare against fits assuming exact ages and flux values.
We find the integrated mean error (standard deviation / mean) of our Monte Carlo simulations to never be in excess of 100%, with significant decreases in error at older stellar ages. The mean absolute error on any flux value from any wavelength is never above 50%. We therefore submit our model of the solar flux as viable for planetary atmosphere studies which are concerned with the first order evolution of the Sun in time.
Claire Mark
Ribas Ignasi
Sheets John
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