Computer Science – Performance
Scientific paper
Oct 1998
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1998jimo...26..192r&link_type=abstract
WGN, Journal of the International Meteor Organization, vol. 26, no. 5, p. 192-216
Computer Science
Performance
2
Scientific paper
A capsule history of the science of meteor astronomy is presented, beginning with the unexpected appearance of a storm of Leonid meteors in 1833. The overview of the evolution of meteor science continues up to the most recent stupendous Leonid display in 1966. The return to the inner solar system in 1998 of two well-known periodic comets - 21P/Giacobini-Zinner and 55P/Tempel-Tuttle - has brought hope among meteor observers that a recurrence of their respective spectacular meteor showers - the October Giacobinids and November Leonids - will soon occur. An examination of both displays is provided. Giacobinid activity in the 20th century has varied dramatically due to the changing orbit of 21P/Giacobini-Zinner. A close approach to Jupiter in 1910 eventually led to significant meteor activity from this comet by 1926 and full-fledged meteor storms in 1933 and 1946 (the latter being the first case to be observed by radar-echo techniques). The comet's orbit was again perturbed by Jupiter in January 1958, preventing further interaction between the Earth and the Giacobinid stream. Another Jovian perturbation in September 1969 brought the Giacobinids back to the Earth's vicinity with a very strong showing being observed in 1985. Prospects for another Giacobinid shower in 1998 are discussed. The years 1998 and 1999 are the years for the long-awaited return of the Leonid meteors. As to which year might bring any spectacular Leonid shower, opinions from several experts are voiced. The best Leonid showers seem to occur when the Earth follows their parent comet, 55P/Tempel-Tuttle to the latter's descending node - a situation that will occur in 1998-1999. Yet, there have also been two cases (1799 and 1832) of a Leonid storm taking place when Earth has led the comet to the node. Such a geometry also took place in 1997, but only produced a moderately strong display. Based on Leonid performance during their past six cycles (dating back to 1799), the author suggests that only modest Leonid showers occur with Earth following 55P/Tempel-Tuttle to the nodal crossing point at 200 days or less, while when the Earth arrives at the node from approximately 300 days or more there is a greater likelihood of more substantial meteor activity. The Earth will arrive at the node 257.3 days behind the comet in 1998 and 622.5 days in 1999, implying that heavy Leonid activity may be an "iffy" proposition in 1998 with better overall odds for 1999. Regions of possible visibility of the impending Leonid showers are depicted and are determined from a compromise between when Earth arrives at the nodal crossing point and when Earth is passing across that part of its orbit where the Leonid storm of 1966 occurred. Finally, a look ahead to the 21st century seems to indicate that observing circumstances for the Giacobinids seem to improve considerably by the year 2018, whereas, for the Leonids, perturbations wrought by Jupiter on 55P/Tempel-Tuttle in August 2029 should preclude any storm activity for future returns of this comet in 2031 or 2065.
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