Probability of regional climate change based on the Reliability Ensemble Averaging (REA) method

Details Probability of regional climate change based on the Reliability Ensemble Averaging (REA) method Probability of regional climate change based on the Reliability Ensemble Averaging (REA) method

Jun 2003

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2003georl..30l..31g&link_type=abstract

Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 30, Issue 12, pp. 31-1, CiteID 1629, DOI 10.1029/2003GL017130

Mathematics

Probability

39

Global Change: Atmosphere (0315, 0325), Hydrology: Anthropogenic Effects, Meteorology And Atmospheric Dynamics: Climatology (1620), Meteorology And Atmospheric Dynamics: Numerical Modeling And Data Assimilation, Meteorology And Atmospheric Dynamics: Precipitation (1854)

Scientific paper

We present an extension of the Reliability Ensemble Averaging, or REA, method [ Giorgi and Mearns, 2002] to calculate the probability of regional climate change exceeding given thresholds based on ensembles of different model simulations. The method is applied to a recent set of transient experiments for the A2 and B2 IPCC emission scenarios with 9 different atmosphere-ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs). Probabilities of surface air temperature and precipitation change are calculated for 10 regions of subcontinental scale spanning a range of latitudes and climatic settings. The results obtained from the REA method are compared with those obtained with a simpler but conceptually similar approach [ Räisänen and Palmer, 2001]. It is shown that the REA method can provide a simple and flexible tool to estimate probabilities of regional climate change from ensembles of model simulations for use in risk and cost assessment studies.

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