Prequential probability: game-theoretic = measure theoretic

Details Prequential probability: game-theoretic = measure theoretic Prequential probability: game-theoretic = measure theoretic

2009-05-11

arxiv.org/abs/0905.1673v1

Mathematics

Statistics Theory

16 pages

Scientific paper

This article continues study of the prequential framework for evaluating a probability forecaster. Testing the hypothesis that the sequence of forecasts issued by the forecaster is in agreement with the observed outcomes can be done using prequential notions of probability. It turns out that there are two natural notions of probability in the prequential framework: game-theoretic, whose idea goes back to von Mises and Ville, and measure-theoretic, whose idea goes back to Kolmogorov. The main result of this article is that, in the case of predicting binary outcomes, the two notions of probability in fact coincide on the analytic sets (in particular, on the Borel sets).

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