Preliminary application of fuzzy clustering in the flare-geomagnetic disturbance analyses

Computer Science

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Cluster Analysis, Fuzzy Systems, Magnetic Disturbances, Shock Waves, Solar Flares, Geomagnetism, Solar Wind

Scientific paper

The method of fuzzy clustering is used to study 210 geomagnetic disturbance events, which were caused by the flare associated interplanetary shock waves during the period 1975-1983. Clustering centers, fuzzy equivalent relationships and clustering indices for three kinds of clusters, i.e., large, middle and small, are obtained. Main results are: (1) for 95 pct of all flare-shock waves could cause the geomagnetic disturbances (Sigma Kappa rho equal to or greater than 16); (2) success to failure ratio of the fuzzy-clustering prediction test is about 80 pct for the large geomagnetic disturbance events, which were caused by those flares with importance equal to or greater than 2, lasting over an hour and importance equal to or greater than 1, lasting over 2 hours and for those where a sudden velocity increase in the solar wind, exceeding 50 km/s, were observed with at least 3 radio sources; and (3) for these large events, the variation range of the geomagnetic disturbances is very wide, from Sigma Kappa rho equal to or greater than 12 to Sigma Kappa rho equal to or greater than 54, showing that the geomagnetic effects associated with the flare-interplanetary shock waves are very complicated.

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