Predictions Of The Imminent Flare Occurrence From Photospheric Magnetic Paramenters

Details Predictions Of The Imminent Flare Occurrence From Photospheric Magnetic Paramenters Predictions Of The Imminent Flare Occurrence From Photospheric Magnetic Paramenters

Jun 2006

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2006spd....37.0905s&link_type=abstract

American Astronomical Society, SPD meeting #37, #9.05; Bulletin of the American Astronomical Society, Vol. 38, p.236

Mathematics

Probability

Scientific paper

With the goal of identifying photospheric magnetic states that likely give rise to solar energetic events (especially, solar flares), we have analyzed three photospheric magnetic parameters, and quantified their correlations with imminent flare productivity of active regions. Three parameters are: (1) total unsigned magnetic flux, which is a measure of an active region's size, (2) the length of strong-gradient neutral line (GNL), which describes the global non-potentiality of an active region, and (3) total magnetic dissipation, which is another proxy measure of an active region's non-potentiality. They were derived from the Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) magnetograms. Imminent flare productivity (e.g., in the following 1 day) of an active region was parameterized by counting X-,M- and C-class flares and weighing them as 100, 10, and 1, respectively. Based on a sample of 116 active regions we have recently found that the flare productivity of active regions is positively correlated with each parameters, with correlation coefficient of 0.59, 0.71 and 0.56, respectively. We will apply a statistical analysis on the data to establish a prediction system, which estimates the probability for each active region to produce X-, M- or C-class flares during the next 1-day, 2-day and 5-day periods.

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