Prediction of the Beginning of Solar Activity Cycle 24 by the Similar Cycle Method

Details Prediction of the Beginning of Solar Activity Cycle 24 by the Similar Cycle Method Prediction of the Beginning of Solar Activity Cycle 24 by the Similar Cycle Method

Jul 2008

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2008cha%26a..32..260m&link_type=abstract

Chinese Astronomy and Astrophysics, Volume 32, Issue 3, p. 260-267.

Astronomy and Astrophysics

Astrophysics

3

Scientific paper

In this paper, the method of similar cycles is applied to predict the start time of the 24th cycle of solar activity and the sunspot numbers in the later part of the descending phase of cycle 23. According to the characteristic parameters and the morphological characters of the descending phase of cycle 23 and of cycles 9, 10, 11, 15, 17 and 20 (cycles selected as the similar cycles for the descending phase of cycle 23), the start time of cycle 24 is predicted to be in 2007 yr 5 ± 1m, the smoothed monthly mean spot number, 7.1 ± 2.6 and the length of the 23rd cycle, 11.1 yr. These results agree rather well with those stated in Refs.[11] & [12] as well as those of MSFC. Our work shows that the method of similar cycles can well be applied to the long-term prediction of solar activity.

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