Prediction of Solar Proton Events Depending on X-ray Flare Peak Flux, Longitude, and Impulsive Time

Details Prediction of Solar Proton Events Depending on X-ray Flare Peak Flux, Longitude, and Impulsive Time Prediction of Solar Proton Events Depending on X-ray Flare Peak Flux, Longitude, and Impulsive Time

May 2009

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2009spd....40.1603p&link_type=abstract

American Astronomical Society, SPD meeting #40, #16.03; Bulletin of the American Astronomical Society, Vol. 41, p.840

Mathematics

Probability

Scientific paper

In this study, we have examined the longitudinal dependence of solar proton events and their relationships with x-ray flares. For this we used NOAA solar energetic particle (SEP) events from 1976 to 2006 and their associated X-ray flare data. As a result, we found that about only 3.5% (1.9% for M-class and 21.3% for X-class) of the flares are associated with the proton events. It is also found that this fraction strongly depends on longitude; for example, the fraction for 30W° < L ≤ 90W° is about three times larger than that for 30°E < L ≤ 90°E. The occurrence probability of solar proton events for flares with long duration (≥ 0.3 hours) is about 2 (X-class flare) to 7 (M-class flare) times larger than that for flares with short duration (< 0.3 hours). The relationship between X-ray flare peak flux and proton peak flux as well as its correlation coefficient are strongly dependent on longitude. Using these results, we suggest a new proton event forecast method with two-steps: (1) solar proton occurrence probability prediction according to the contingency tables depending on its associated flare strength, longitude, and impulsive time, (2) solar proton peak flux prediction using the result of a multiple linear regression method. In addition, we examined the characteristics of five proton events without flares but with CMEs. By considering solar rotation rate and the history of flares in backside active regions using SOHO LASCO and SOHO MDI data, we could identify that they are all back side events ranging from 90°W and 120°W. This interpretation is supported by that the dependence of their rise times on longitude is consistent with the previous empirical formula.

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