Prediction of solar and geomagnetic activity for ESA low-flying spacecraft

Details Prediction of solar and geomagnetic activity for ESA low-flying spacecraft Prediction of solar and geomagnetic activity for ESA low-flying spacecraft

Aug 1991

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1991rsk..nasa...63m&link_type=abstract

In its The Reentry of Salyut-7/Kosmos-1686 p 63-72(SEE N92-23967 14-18)

Computer Science

Performance

Artificial Satellites, Geomagnetism, Mission Planning, Orbital Position Estimation, Prediction Analysis Techniques, Solar Activity Effects, Computer Programs, Drag, Earth Orbital Environments, European Space Agency, Orbital Mechanics

Scientific paper

During the planning and operation of low altitude Earth orbit satellite missions, an important activity is orbit prediction over periods ranging from days to more than one year. It is also necessary to assess the impact of solar activity on the onboard electronics over the long term. In the orbital propagation model, the dominant, and most difficult component to predict, is the drag force, as it is sensitive to the continuous variations of solar and geomagnetic activity. In the air density models presently available, solar activity is parameterized in terms of the solar radio flux F10.7, whereas geomagnetic activity is represented by the Kp (or the equivalent Ap) index. The availability of long, medium and short term prediction of the solar and geomagnetic activity is fundamental for satisfying the current operational needs. A method for medium and long term forecasting of the activities has been developed and implemented in a computer system. The method predicts monthly mean values of the F10.7 radio flux and Ap index. The SOLMAG software is currently used for mission analysis and in planning work for the ERS and EURECA missions. The performance of the prediction software is discussed.

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