Prediction of cycle 24 based on information about solar activity during the last 10 000 years

Details Prediction of cycle 24 based on information about solar activity during the last 10 000 years Prediction of cycle 24 based on information about solar activity during the last 10 000 years

Jun 2009

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2009ge%26ae..49..408o&link_type=abstract

Geomagnetism and Aeronomy, Volume 49, Issue 3, pp.408-411

Mathematics

Probability

96.50.Wx

Scientific paper

The average and maximal numbers of sunspot groups in the approaching solar cycle (cycle 24) have been predicted using paleoastrophysical information about solar activity during the last more than 10000 years. The linear and nonlinear prediction methods have been applied. It has been indicated that, from the standpoint of solar paleoastrophysics, the next cycle will most probably be average: the number of sunspot groups at a maximum will reach 68-101. The probability that cycle 24 will be powerful (more than 160 sunspot groups), which was predicted by some researchers, is low (not higher than 2%).

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