Prediction of classes M and X X-ray phenomena

Details Prediction of classes M and X X-ray phenomena Prediction of classes M and X X-ray phenomena

Apr 1985

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1985ursb...19..125b&link_type=abstract

In its USSR Report: Space Biology and Aerospace Medicine, Vol. 19, No. 1, January - February 1985 (JPRS-USB-85-003) p 125-128 (S

Biology

Onboard Equipment, Solar Flares, Solar Flux, Solar X-Rays, Algorithms, Pattern Recognition, Prediction Analysis Techniques

Scientific paper

Data concerning variations in flux of solar x-radiation are needed to assure proper operation of onboard equipment of spacecraft. Such information is required to predict the state of the ionosphere, identify and predict the geoeffectiveness of interplanetary shock waves from solar flares, identify and predict proton bursts and the radiation situation in near earth space. Of basic interest here is to forecast x-ray solar flares, since expressly they elicit the most significant changes in flux. The purpose was to obtain objective criteria for predicting class M and X phenomena on the basis of current incoming information as well as to predict class M and higher flares in a given active region (AR) for the next day according to characteristics of the active region. Only the AR characteristics were used that were reported daily and immediately on the routine programs of the sun service, namely, area of group of spots, number of spots per group, magnetic structure of group and prodrome of flare. From these characteristics were formed 10 parameters, which included both the base data and their derivatives. Thus, a 10-component vector corrosponding to each situation was formed. The problem was solved by methods of pattern recognition using a modification of the Topol algorithm.

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