Astronomy and Astrophysics – Astronomy
Scientific paper
Dec 1999
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1999pkas...14...91j&link_type=abstract
Publications of the Korean Astronomical Society, vol. 14, no. 2, pp. 91-102
Astronomy and Astrophysics
Astronomy
Prediction Of Solar Activity Cycle, Statistical Method, Precursor Method
Scientific paper
We have made intensive calculations on the maximum relative sunspot number and the date of solar maximum of 23rd solar cycle, by using the statistical and precursor methods to predict solar activity cycle. According to our results of solar data processing by statistical method, solar maximum comes at between February and July of 2000 year and at that time, the smoothed sunspot number will reach to 114.3 122.8. while precursor method gives rather dispersed value of 118 171 maximum sunspot number. It is found that prediction by statistical method using smoothed relative sunspot number is more accurate than by any method to use any data of 10.7cm radio fluxes and geomagnetic aa, Ap indexes, from the full analysis of solar cycle pattern of these data. In fact, current ascending pattern of 23rd solar cycle supports positively our predicted values. Predicted results by precursor method for Apavg , aa_{31-36} indexes show similar values to those by statistical method. Therefore, these indexes can be used as new precursors for the prediction of 23rd or next solar cycle.
Jang Se Jin
Kim Kap-Sung
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