Prediction in chaotic nonlinear systems - Methods for time series with broadband Fourier spectra

Mathematics – Dynamical Systems

Scientific paper

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Chaos, Fourier Analysis, Nonlinear Systems, Prediction Analysis Techniques, Time Series Analysis, Dynamical Systems, Liapunov Functions, Power Spectra, System Identification

Scientific paper

The present treatment of prediction and system identification in time-series having broadband power spectra generated by the intrinsic nonlinear dynamics of the system views that system in a reconstructed space that captures the (often strange) attractor on which the system evolves. A procedure is given for the construction of parameterized maps which evolve points in the phase-space into the future; since the predictor of future points is a combination of operation on past points by the map and its iterates, the map is viewed as a dynamical system, and not merely as a fit to the data. Attention is given to methods for the extraction of the Liapunov exponents and optimum moments from data, as well as to problems associated with prediction and systems identification on strange attractors.

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