Prediction and evaluation of solar particle events based on precursor information

Details Prediction and evaluation of solar particle events based on precursor information Prediction and evaluation of solar particle events based on precursor information

Aug 1992

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1992adspr..12..313h&link_type=abstract

(Life sciences and space research XXIV/2/ - Radiation biology; Proceedings of the Topical Meeting of the Interdisciplinary Scien

Biology

7

Manned Space Flight, Prediction Analysis Techniques, Radiation Hazards, Radiation Protection, Solar Corpuscular Radiation, Solar Flares, Charged Particles, Deep Space, Solar Activity, Solar Flux, Solar Protons, Space Missions

Scientific paper

Protection from the radiation effects of solar particle events for deep space mission crews requires a warning system to observe solar flares and predict subsequent charged particle fluxes. Such a system relates precursor information observed in each flare to the intensity, delay, and duration of the subsequent Solar Particle Event (SPE) at other locations in the solar system. A warning system of this type is now in operation at the NOAA Space Environment Services Center in Boulder, Colorado for support of space missions. It has been used to predict flare particle fluxes at the earth for flares of Solar Cycle 22. The flare parameters used and the effectiveness of the current warning system, based on Solar Cycle 22 experience, are presented, with an examination of the shortcomings. Needed improvements to the system include more complete observations of solar activity, especially information on the occurrences of solar mass ejections and consideration of the effects of propagation conditions in the solar corona and interplanetary medium. Requirements for solar observations and forecasting systems on board the spacecraft are discussed.

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