Astronomy and Astrophysics – Astrophysics
Scientific paper
Dec 2002
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2002agufmsh61a0432o&link_type=abstract
American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2002, abstract #SH61A-0432
Astronomy and Astrophysics
Astrophysics
7500 Solar Physics, Astrophysics, And Astronomy, 7513 Coronal Mass Ejections
Scientific paper
Remote observations of CMEs at the Sun are combined with in-situ observations of their associated ICMEs at 1AU. The feasibility of space weather prediction on the basis of coronal measurements is investigated. Current models of CME arrival times (Gopalswamy et al., 2000) assume a constant deceleration of the ejecta from the corona to 1AU, and do not explicitly include the effect of the ambient solar wind speed. Furthermore, the estimation of the speed of a CME along the Earth-Sun line is subject to severe projection effects. A comparison of the effect of these factors on the predicted 1AU arrival times is made, and the importance of the speed of an ICME in the solar wind frame is highlighted for prediction of the magnetic properties of an ICME.
Cargill Peter J.
Owens Mathew J.
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