Predicting the mean Bz magnitude

Details Predicting the mean Bz magnitude Predicting the mean Bz magnitude

Oct 2001

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2001jgr...10621009k&link_type=abstract

Journal of Geophysical Research, Volume 106, Issue A10, p. 21009-21016

Astronomy and Astrophysics

Astrophysics

3

Magnetospheric Physics, Solar Physics, Astrophysics, And Astronomy

Scientific paper

When a ``boxcar'' average of the Bz magnitude is plotted, a clear cyclic pattern is apparent with an approximate correlation with the sunspot cycle. The Bz cycle minima are seen to occur at nearly the same time as the sunspot cycle minima. The cyclic maxima appear to be characterized by a double peak, with the second peak occurring in the descending phase of the sunspot cycle. This cyclical nature makes it possible to apply the McNish-Lincoln technique to make predictions concerning the future level of Bz magnitude. This method leads to a prediction of the maximum average magnitude in Bz occurring in the year 2003 time frame.

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