Predicting spatial density characteristics from breakup models

Mathematics – Probability

Scientific paper

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Scientific paper

Simulations are used to predict regions of increased density in the debris cloud resulting from a single breakup. Secondary conjunctions are assumed to be correlated with increased spatial density of debris. The probability of secondary conjunctions is shown to be greatest at the extreme latitudes of the debris cloud, at the height of the breakup, and in the predicted plane of the parent object. Density is shown to vary by orders of magnitude within the cloud. This result gives some insight into the complex structure of the debris environment.

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