Predicting launch vehicle failure

Mathematics – Probability

Scientific paper

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Aerospace Safety, Failure Analysis, Launch Vehicles, Prediction Analysis Techniques, System Failures, Atlas Launch Vehicles, Centaur Launch Vehicle, Delta Launch Vehicle, Liquid Propellant Rocket Engines, Probability Theory, Solid Propellant Rocket Engines, Titan Launch Vehicles

Scientific paper

The use of launch vehicle failure data to evaluate the causes of vehicle failures is examined. Launch vehicle failure trends for the Titan, Centaur, Atlas, and Delta vehicles are discussed. Failure probabilities for liquid and solid propulsion systems are analzyed, and the data are applied to liquid propulsion systems that can complete missions with one or more engines out. Methods for reducing failures, such as the use of a redundant, voting guidance system, are described.

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