Predicting Equatorial Ionospheric Densities and Scintillation -- a Challenging Aeronomy Frontier

Details Predicting Equatorial Ionospheric Densities and Scintillation -- a Challenging Aeronomy Frontier Predicting Equatorial Ionospheric Densities and Scintillation -- a Challenging Aeronomy Frontier

Dec 2005

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2005agufmsa51b1130d&link_type=abstract

American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2005, abstract #SA51B-1130

Other

2415 Equatorial Ionosphere, 2427 Ionosphere/Atmosphere Interactions (0335)

Scientific paper

There is a strong space weather need to forecast ionospheric density and irregularities. The Communication / Navigation Outage Forecasting System (C/NOFS) Mission of the Air Force Research Laboratory has been designed for that purpose. The C/NOFS satellite, scheduled for launch in February 2006 into a low inclination (13°), elliptical (~ 375 x 710 km) orbit, is the main component of the C/NOFS Mission. Complementary ground-based measurements are also part of the Mission. C/NOFS sensors will measure the following parameters: ambient and fluctuating electron densities; ion and electron temperatures; neutral winds, AC and DC electric and magnetic fields. C/NOFS will also be equipped with a GPS occultation receiver, and a radio beacon. Models have been developed that ingest C/NOFS satellite and ground based data in order to forecast the ambient ionosphere and scintillation regions. This talk will present pre-C/NOFS validation efforts, as well as validation plans for the C/NOFS era. Ion drift measurements at the magnetic equator (Jicamarca, Peru) are used as input for some of the pre-C/NOFS validation runs. Close to Jicamarca, the density model can provide a reasonable agreement with the ground truth data, at least during geomagnetically quiet times. Specifying density at other latitudes, however, is not always easy. Forecasting these densities is even more difficult. Several factors contribute to this problem. In particular, the difficulty in specifying and predicting drivers such as electric field, neutral wind, and neutral composition hampers the model accuracy. These studies clearly demonstrate the need for improved measurements of ionospheric and thermospheric parameters in the equatorial regions, and improved ability to forecast the ionospheric drivers. Collaborative C/NOFS observations using ground and space-based observations will provide tools to improve our predictive capability.

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