Statistics – Methodology
Scientific paper
Dec 2002
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2002agufm.p22c0409m&link_type=abstract
American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2002, abstract #P22C-0409
Statistics
Methodology
1560 Time Variations: Secular And Long Term, 2162 Solar Cycle Variations (7536), 3309 Climatology (1620), 5450 Orbital And Rotational Dynamics
Scientific paper
Summary: A world wide network has been continuously monitoring the secular change of the Earth's physical processes as recorded on the Earth like the geomagnetic field, the Earth's rotation, etc. The database, which has been collected by the observatories, gives us a chance to make a study of the temporal behaviour of the Earth's magnetic field and to understand the features of these and related phenomena. The long-term magnetic field data show a close qualitative relation both to the secular change of climate and to the variation in the sunspot cycle. On the other hand the fluctuations in the Earth's rotation also show a good correlation to the sunspot and climatic phenomena. This is a very important fact because the decade fluctuation in Earth's rotation depends on those streams in the outer core, which produce the long-term variation in the Earth's magnetic field. This result means that it may not be unrealistic to think of a rather strong interaction between the internal and external magnetic fields of the Earth, and the mechanical implications of this interaction. The outer reason(s) of both solar and the mentioned terrestrial physical processes is one of the possible theories, which is able to include and explain these observed facts. The calculated Earth's orbit, perpendicular to the ecliptic plane (so called Z-direction), and rather the 1st derivative in time of this orbital motion (Z-acceleration) is direct relation to the gravitational perturbations of the (primarily giant) planets. Therefore this time series gives us a chance to investigate the dynamical effects of the giant planets on the Earth. We ended up with quite accurate data sets both in the time series of the Earth's rotation (we used the so called dT-time series which is the measure of the cumulative discrepancy of Earth's rotation in time, and length of day [l.o.d.], which is the 1st derivative in time of dT, and the 1st derivative in time of l.o.d., which is related to the rotational acceleration) and global number of earthquake for this period from published literature which give us a great picture about the dynamical geophysical phenomena. Methodology: The computing of linear correlation coefficients gives us a chance to quantitatively characterise the relation among the data series, if we suppose a linear dependence in the first step. The correlation coefficients among the Earth's rotational acceleration and Z-orbit acceleration (perpendicular to the ecliptic plane) and the global number of the earthquakes were compared. The results clearly demonstrate the common feature of both the Earth's rotation and Earth's Z-acceleration around the Sun and also between the Earth's rotational acceleration and the earthquake number. This fact might means a strong relation among these phenomena. The mentioned rather strong correlation (r = 0.75) and the 29 year period (Saturn's synodic period) was clearly shown in the counted cross correlation function, which gives the dynamical characteristic of correlation, of Earth's orbital- (Z-direction) and rotational acceleration. This basic period (29 year) was also obvious in the earthquake number data sets with clear common features in time. Conclusion: The Core, which involves the secular variation of the Earth's magnetic field, is the only sufficiently mobile part of the Earth with a sufficient mass to modify the rotation which probably effects on the global time distribution of the earthquakes. Therefore it might means that the secular variation of the earthquakes is inseparable from the changes in Earth's magnetic field, i.e. the interior process of the Earth's core belongs to the dynamical state of the solar system. Therefore if the described idea is real the global distribution of the earthquakes in time is predictable.
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