Predictability of stratospheric sudden warmings in the Northern Hemisphere as inferred from ensemble forecast data

Details Predictability of stratospheric sudden warmings in the Northern Hemisphere as inferred from ensemble forecast data Predictability of stratospheric sudden warmings in the Northern Hemisphere as inferred from ensemble forecast data

Dec 2006

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2006agufm.a21f0891h&link_type=abstract

American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2006, abstract #A21F-0891

Mathematics

Logic

3300 Atmospheric Processes, 3334 Middle Atmosphere Dynamics (0341, 0342), 3362 Stratosphere/Troposphere Interactions

Scientific paper

Stratospheric sudden warmings are caused by enhanced propagation of planetary waves from the troposphere. In some sudden warmings, only planetary waves of zonal wavenumber 1 essentially contribute to their occurrence, while wavenumber-2 and/or 3 components play an important role in the development of other sudden warmings, which are often accompanied with split polar vortices. Such a difference in the course of time evolution would make a difference in predictable periods of the sudden warmings. In this study, using the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) ensemble one-month forecast data, we carefully compare predictability of several warmings occurring in recent five Northern Hemisphere winters and discuss important factors giving rise to each sudden warming event. It is found that the lead time for the prediction of the wavenumber-1 warmings is relatively long, say, 2-3 weeks in advance, compared with that of the vortex-split warmings, say, 7-10 days; in case of the wavenumber-1 warmings without pre-conditioning following the cold and undisturbed early winter, predictability is particularly good. The short predictability of the vortex-split warmings might be connected to the difficulty in the prediction of wavenumber-2 and 3 evolution compared with that of wavenumber-1 evolution. Hence, the behavior of each component of planetary waves in the ensemble forecast system is very important for the predictability determination.

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