Predictability of atmospheric low-frequency motions

Details Predictability of atmospheric low-frequency motions Predictability of atmospheric low-frequency motions

Jan 1984

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1984aipc..106..149e&link_type=abstract

AIP Conference Proceedings, Volume 106, pp. 149-157 (1984).

Computer Science

Weather Analysis And Prediction

Scientific paper

Much of the atmospheric long-term variability (periods >= 10 days) is contained in the largest planetary scales (zonal wave number m<=5). It is proposed that a considerable fraction of these low-frequency motions is induced by the interaction of planetary-scale modes with synoptic-scale modes (m>~5). To test this hypothesis, the synoptic-scale forcing of the planetary-scale 500-mb streamfunction is determined from data. This forcing can be fitted approximately to a Markov process of first order and depends on locality. The planetary-scale response to this forcing is determined and it is found that there is quite a good correspondence between the low-frequency variance as observed and the one computed. The predictability of such forced planetary-scale motions is discussed.

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