Mathematics – Probability
Scientific paper
Jan 1995
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1995em%26p...68..539s&link_type=abstract
Earth, Moon, and Planets, Volume 68, Issue 1-3, pp. 539-544
Mathematics
Probability
Photometry Of Comets, Sizes Of Cometary Nuclei
Scientific paper
Not considering very rare ”in situ” measurements of cometary nuclei, observations of comets at large heliocentric distances are the only direct source of our knowledge on their sizes. Observations of a cometary nucleus in pure reflected sunlight, at the time when coma is absent, are the way in which the nucleus size can be estimated. Probabilities that extreme observations represent non—active stages of cometary nuclei and also reliability of derived cometary nucleus sizes are investigated. Statistical analysis is based on a sample of 2842 photometric observations of 67 long-period comets observed at large heliocentric distances. For any long-period comet, there is a probability of 2:3 that the sizes derived on the basis of observations at extreme distances are in good agreement with the real nucleus sizes. For new comets in Oort's sense the probability is 3:4 independent of investigated arcs of orbits. For old comets a chance to estimate correct sizes is 1:2 but on the pre-perihelion arc only 1:3. It is also demonstrated that a premature start of activity prior to perihelion or a longer fading after perihelion is more frequent than a short-time isolated activity at large heliocentric distances.
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