Physical Modeling of Near-Earth Asteroid 29075 (1950 DA)

Details Physical Modeling of Near-Earth Asteroid 29075 (1950 DA) Physical Modeling of Near-Earth Asteroid 29075 (1950 DA)

Sep 2006

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2006dps....38.5309b&link_type=abstract

American Astronomical Society, DPS meeting #38, #53.09; Bulletin of the American Astronomical Society, Vol. 38, p.582

Mathematics

Probability

Scientific paper

Near-Earth asteroid 29075 (1950 DA) will make a close approach to Earth in 2880. The probability of Earth impact may be as high as 1/300, but the outcome of the encounter depends critically on the physical properties of the asteroid (Giorgini et al. 2002, Science 296, 132-136). We have used all available Arecibo and Goldstone radar data and optical lightcurves to estimate the shape, spin state, and surface structure of the asteroid, improving on the modeling of Giorgini et al., which used only Arecibo images. The estimations produce two distinctly different models that provide equally good statistical fits to the data. One rotates prograde and is roughly spheroidal with geometric mean diameter 1.16 ± 0.12 km. The other rotates retrograde and is oblate with mean diameter 1.30 ± 0.13 km. The two models predict significantly different lightcurve amplitudes in late 2006, and optical observations then may be able to determine which model is correct.

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