Economy – Quantitative Finance – Risk Management
Scientific paper
Sep 2010
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2010amos.confe..63m&link_type=abstract
Proceedings of the Advanced Maui Optical and Space Surveillance Technologies Conference, held in Wailea, Maui, Hawaii, September
Economy
Quantitative Finance
Risk Management
Scientific paper
The objective of this paper is to examine when the aerospace community should proceed to develop and deploy active debris removal solutions. A two-prong approach is taken to examine both (1) operational hazard thresholds and (2) economic triggers. Research in the paper reinforces work by previous investigators that show accurately determining a hazard metric, and an appropriate threshold for that metric that triggers an imperative to implement active debris removal options, is difficult to formulate. A new operational hazard threshold defined by the doubling of the “lethal” debris environment coupled with the threshold that would affect insurance premiums is disclosed for the first time. The doubling of the lethal hazard at 850km and the annual probability of collision in the 650-1000km region may both occur as early as 2035.
A simple static (i.e. no temporal dimension) economic threshold is derived that provides the clearest indicator that active debris removal solutions development and deployment should start immediately. This straightforward observation is based on the fact that it will always be at least an order of magnitude less expensive, quicker to execute, and operationally beneficial to remove mass from orbit as one large (several thousand kilograms) object rather than as the result of tens of thousands of fragments that would be produced from a catastrophic collision. Additionally, the ratio of lethal fragments to trackable objects is only ~1,000x yet there is a need for the collection efficiency to be ~10,000x so “sweeping” of lethal fragments is not viable.
The practicality of the large object removal is tempered by the observation that one may have to remove ~10-50x derelict objects to prevent a single collision. This fact forces the imperative that removal needs to start now due to the delays that will be necessary not only to perfect/deploy approaches to debris removal and establish supporting policies/regulations but also because of the time it takes for the actions to reap benefits.
Additionally, if the growth of the lethal hazard grows faster than anticipated it may be necessary to replace some satellites, execute large object removal, and perform medium debris (i.e. lethal fragments) sweeping operations. The sooner the community starts to remove large derelict objects, the more likely satellite damage will be minimized and the less likely that medium debris sweeping will have to be implemented. While the research is focused on starting debris removal, the ensemble of observations reinforces the need to continue to push for as close to 100% compliance to debris mitigation guidelines as possible.
This analysis is unique in its pragmatic application of advanced probability concepts, merging of space hazard assessments with space insurance thresholds, and the use of general risk management concepts on the orbital debris hazard control process. It is hoped that this paper provides an impetus for spacefaring organizations to start to actively pursue development and deployment of debris removal solutions and policies.
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