Parametric inference for stochastic differential equations: a smooth and match approach

Details Parametric inference for stochastic differential equations: a smooth and match approach Parametric inference for stochastic differential equations: a smooth and match approach

2011-11-04

arxiv.org/abs/1111.1120v1

Mathematics

Statistics Theory

30 pages

Scientific paper

We study the problem of parameter estimation for a univariate discretely observed ergodic diffusion process given as a solution to a stochastic differential equation. The estimation procedure we propose consists of two steps. In the first step, which is referred to as a smoothing step, we smooth the data and construct a nonparametric estimator of the invariant density of the process. In the second step, which is referred to as a matching step, we exploit a characterisation of the invariant density as a solution of a certain ordinary differential equation, replace the invariant density in this equation by its nonparametric estimator from the smoothing step in order to arrive at an intuitively appealing criterion function, and next define our estimator of the parameter of interest as a minimiser of this criterion function. In many interesting examples such an estimator will be computationally less intense than the more conventional estimators obtained through approximation of the likelihood function associated with the observations. Our main result shows that our estimator is $\sqrt{n}$-consistent under suitable conditions. We also discuss a way of improving its asymptotic performance through a one-step Newton-Raphson type procedure.

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